Hazards

Karymsky volcano is located on the remote Russian peninsula, Kamchatka.  Kamchatka is home to 29 active volcanoes, yet very few pose a direct threat to local populations (Kirianov et al., 2002).  However, most of them are significant threats to air traffic in the North Pacific, affecting flights between Russia, Japan, and the United States (Kirianov et al., 2002).  Over 10,000 passengers and millions of dollars in cargo fly across the North Pacific every day (Neal et al., 2007).  

Karymsky volcano emits frequent strombolian-vulcanian style ash and gas plumes several km's a.s.l.  This small gas eruption occurred in August, 2008.   A larger eruption could threaten air traffic, which is very heavy above Karymsky and Kamchatka (Photo courtesy of Pavel Izbekov - UAF).  

Karymsky volcano is located over 80 km from the nearest settlement.  As a result, typical volcano hazards such as PDC’s, tephra fall out, lava flows, landslides, lahars, rock fall, and volcanic gases are negligible (See Table 1).  However, volcanic ash and tephra often drift with prevailing winds hundreds or thousands of kilometers from the source (Kirianov et al., 2002).  Volcanic ash can erode jet aircraft compressor blades and melt and solidify onto moving parts within the jet causing engines to fail suddenly (Kirianov et al., 2002).  Consequently, volcanoes are often monitored to avoid the interaction of flying jet aircraft and volcanic ash plumes.   

Vulcanian style eruption at Karysmky 

volcano on October 12, 2009.  The 

frequent PDC's at Karymsky are 

confined to the caldera and do not

threaten any local populations (Photo

from Global Volcanism Program).  

The 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland is an example of a volcano that was closely monitored.  The volcano erupted explosively and produced an eruption column that reached heights of 9-10 km a.s.l. (IVATF, 2012).  North-westerly winds carried the ash particles towards western Europe where much of the airspace was closed due to strict aviation safety regulations.  As a consequence, millions of travelers were affected all over the world (IVATF, 2012).  The closure of a large area of airspace for a period of several days to weeks had a detrimental impact on the aviation industry and the regional and global economies (Weber et al., 2011).  












Table 1: Karymsky volcano hazards assessment based on NVEWS (National Volcano Early Warning System)

Hazard Factors	Score
Volcano type	1
Maximum Volcanic Explosivity Index	2
Explosive activity in past 500 years?	1
Major explosive activity in past 5000 years?	1
Eruption recurrence	4
Holocene pyroclastic flows?	1
Holocene lahars?	1
Holocene lava flow?	1
Hydrothermal explosion potential?	1
Holocene tsunami?	0
Sector collapse potential?	1
Primary lahar source?	1
Observed seismic activity	1
Observed ground deformation	0
Observed fumarolic or magmatic degassing	1
Total of Hazard Factors	17
Exposure Factors
Log10 of Volcano Population Index (VPI) at 30 km 0 to 5.4	0
Log10 of approximate population downstream or downslope 0 to 5.1	0
Historical fatalities? 0 or 1	0
Historical evacuations? 0 or 1	0
Local aviation exposure 0 to 2	2
Regional aviation exposure 0 to 5.15	4.3
Power infrastructure 0 or 1	0
Transportation infrastructure 0 or 1	0
Major development or sensitive areas 0 or 1	1
Volcano is a significant part of a populated island 0 or 1	0
Total of Exposure Factors	7.3
Relative Threat Level (Hazard Factors X Exposure Factors)	124.1
Required Monitoring Level	4
Actual Monitoring Level	3
Monitoring Gap	1
Aviation Hazard Level                                                                                                      (Max VEI * Explosive activity in past 500 years * Major explosive activity in past 5000 years * Eruption recurrence * Local aviation exposure factor * Regional aviation exposure factor)	68.8

Karymsky volcano is monitored by 6 broadband seismometers and satellite imagery regularly (KVERT).  Other monitoring techniques, such as gas, hydrologic, and video are not applied regularly.  Karymsky does not have a geodetic network in place.  

Karymsky volcano produced over 20 major eruptions in the last 200 years (Karymsky Volcano).   The most recent eruptive cycle began in 1996 and continues today (VONA/KVERT).  The initial 1996 eruption produced an ash plume over 7 km a.s.l. and drifted at least 200 km southeast and south of the volcano (Karymsky Volcano).  In the last 17 years since the onset of the eruption, the volcano has produced sporadic Vulcanian and Vulcanian-Strombolian style eruptions, ejecting ash and tephra approximately 5 km a.s.l. (Smithsonian).  Table 2 is a compilation of data from Smithsonian/USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Reports of ash plume heights, plume drift distances, and drift direction from Karymsky during the last decade.     

Photo of Karymsky volcano on January 2, 1996 shortly after the initiation of the current eruptive cycle.  Continuous ash and gas emission from the volcano lasted for several days.  Dense tephra fell out of the eruption column and plume, while less dense ash was suspended and carried by the wind (Global Volcanism Program). 

According to the limited data available, which has been compiled here, the average plume height in the past decade was 3.8 km a.s.l.  The average drift distance was 74 km and the approximate average drift direction was east-southeast.  However, ash plumes from Karymsky have the potential to reach heights of 10 km, drift up to 350 km in any direction, and can shift direction within a day (VONA/KVERT).  Ash fall poses a minor hazard to Milkovo, 90 km to the northwest, and to Petropavlosk-Kamchatsky International Airport, 115 km to the south (VONA/KVERT).  

The Hazard Map (Figure 1) shows areas of likely plume drift from eruptions of Karymsky volcano and the flight paths that could be affected.  Eruption plumes drifted east many more times than other directions in the past 10 years.  Figure 1 is based on the data compiled in Table 2, where ash plumes drift mostly eastward over the Pacific Ocean to a maximum of 350 km from the volcano and right through flight paths from Eastern Asia to North America.  

Figure 1: Hazard Map based on compilation of plume height, drift distance, and drift direction data of Karymsky volcano since the onset of the 1996 eruption (Global Volcanism Program).  The yellow area represents the area for which a significant ash plume is likely to drift from an eruption at Karymsky Volcano.  Orange lines represent major commercial flight routes over the North Pacific (modified from Kirianov et al., 2002).

The airspace within 350 km of Karymsky volcano is a high hazard zone where constant and consistent monitoring methods should be continued.  Risk associated with potentially hazardous drifting ash plumes can be minimized by close monitoring of seismic signals and remote sensing.  By installing a geodetic network and adding real-time video monitoring, accurate forecasting of Karymsky eruptions may be possible and risks will be minimized.  


Table 2: Eruptive activity of Karymsky volcano in the last 10 years

Year	Date	Height	Drift Distance	Drift Direction
		(km a.s.l.)	(km)
2002	10-Oct	4	60	WSW
2002	10-Oct		4	SE
2002	1-Nov	4	50	E
2002	27-Nov	0.5	100	ESE
2002	1-Dec			SE
2002	12-Dec			SE
2003	9-Jan	2.5	50	ESE
2003	17-Mar		30	SW
2003	18-Mar		15	NW
2003	20-Mar		15	SW
2003	28-Mar		10	ESE
2003	19-22 April	1.5	35
2003	24-Apr	2.5	35	SE, SW, W
2003	14-May	1	10	S
2003	14-May	1	10	SSE
2003	14-May	1	10	SE
2003	19-May	1	45	NE
2003	21-May	1	45	N
2003	25-26 May	1	115	SSE
2003	27-Jun	3.5		NE
2003	19-Jul	3.5		SW
2003	29-Aug	4.7
2003	9-Sep	2	100	E
2003	4-Oct	1.5	30	SE
2003	7-Oct	1.5	60	NE
2003	10-Oct		85	SE
2003	16-Oct		50	NW
2003	31-Oct		65	NNE
2003	20-Dec		60	NNE
2003	21-Dec		60	NNE
2003	24-Dec		60	NNE
2003	26-Dec		60	NNE
2003	29-Dec		97	SE
2004	Jan	7		S-SW
2004	Feb	6.5
2004	11-Feb	10	60
2004	20-Feb		35	S
2004	March	6.5
2004	April	3.5	60	S
2004	30-Dec			SW
2005	March		15	S
2005	April		15	S
2005	11-Jul		11	SE
2005	22-Aug		130	E
2005	31-Oct			NE
2005	2-Nov			NE
2005	Dec	8		SW
2006	12-Jan		9	S
2006	30-Jan		13	SW
2006	31-Jan		29	SE
2006	Feb		140
2006	Aug		200	E
2006	6-Aug		73	E
2006	16-Aug			NE
2006	12-Sep		140	SE
2006	Oct		200	NE
2006	Oct		220	SE
2006	2-Oct		137	E
2006	22-Dec			E
2006	Dec			E
2007	Feb
2007	5-Oct		30	N
2007	7-Oct		30	N
2007	8-Oct		30	N
2008	15-Mar		40	SE
2008	3-Apr		20	E
2008	8-Apr		70	ESE
2008	13-Oct		32	NNE
2008	10-Nov		38	E
2008	10-Nov		28	ENE
2008	15-Nov		28	E
2008	16-Dec		240	SE
2008	23-23 Dec		80	E
2009	8-Jan		25	SE
2009	12-Jan		25	NE
2009	16-Jan		25	SE
2009	21-Feb		150	NE
2009	4-Mar		120	SE
2009	5-Mar		75	ENE
2009	6-Mar		160	E
2009	7-Mar		115	SE
2009	8-Mar		50	SW
2009	9-Mar		50	SW
2009	12-Mar		200	E
2009	13-Mar		130	E
2009	16-Mar		200	E
2009	26-Mar		30	S
2009	4-Jun		30	SE
2009	22-Sep	2
2009	23-Sep	4.5		E
2009	7-Oct	3.5		SSE
2009	9-Oct	3
2009	12-Oct	3.5
2009	20-Oct	3.3
2009	23-Oct	3.9	120	E
2009	24-Oct	3.4
2009	25-Oct	3.7
2009	31-Oct	3.7	180	E
2009	5-Nov	3.7	180	E
2009	8-Nov	3
2009	10-Nov	3.4	190	E
2009	14-Nov	3.7		E
2009	17-Nov	3	130	E
2009	23-Nov	4	120	E
2009	25-Nov	3.8	120	E
2009	25-Dec	6.7		SE
2010	12-Jan	3	113	SE
2010	15-Jan	3
2010	12-Mar	5.8
2010	26-Mar	4.1
2010	29-Mar	4.1	250	E
2010	17-Apr	2	130	SE
2010	20-Apr	3
2010	28-Apr	3
2010	7-May	2
2010	13-May	4.6
2010	17-May	2.5	18	NE
2010	25-May	4.3		NW
2010	28-May	3	63	S
2010	1-Jun	4	30	S
2010	6-Jun	2.5
2010	11-Jun	6.1	195	E
2010	12-Jun	5.2
2010	16-Jun	3.9	22	E
2010	29-Jun	7
2010	7-Jul	2	20	S
2010	13-Jul	2.7		W
2010	14-Jul	3.3
2010	19-Jul	1.5		SW
2010	23-Jul	3	85	SE
2010	28-Jul	2	15	SE
2010	30-Jul	2
2010	13-Aug	2.5
2010	16-Aug	3	100	E
2010	20-Aug	3.8
2010	27-Aug	3.8	23
2010	3-Sep	3.7
2010	10-Sep	3.2
2010	15-Sep	3.2
2010	28-Sep	4.5	83	SE
2010	7-Oct	5.1	33	SE
2010	7-Oct	2.5	35	SE
2010	16-Oct	2.7		SE
2010	23-Oct		40	E
2010	10-Nov	4.9
2010	16-Nov	5.2	82	NE
2010	22-Nov	5.5	15	SE
2010	3-Dec	5.3
2010	10-Dec	4.5
2010	17-Dec	5
2010	19-Dec	3
2010	30-Dec	4.3		E
2011	1-7 Jan	3.8	140	SE
2011	7-13 Jan	4.2
2011	14-21 Jan	4.6	24	SW
2011	21-28 Jan	3.8	65	S
2011		3.8	100	Ne
2011	28 Jan - 11 Feb	4.7	120	E
2011	4-11 Feb	4	160	E
2011	11-18 Feb	4	30
2011	18-25 Feb	4	38	NE
2011	25 Feb - 4 Mar	3
2011	4-11 Mar	7.3		N
2011	10-18 Mar	5.8
2011	18-25 Mar	3.5
2011	25 Mar- 1 April	5	55
2011	1-7 April	4.5	48
2011	8-15 April	11.9		SW
2011	15-22 April	3
2011	22-29 April	3.4	38	S
2011	29 April-6 May	4.9		SE
2011	6-13 May	4.2	340	E
2011	13-20 May	6.7
2011	20-27 May	3.5	38	SW
2011	27 May-3 June	3.1	10	SW
2011	3-10 June	6	254	SE
2011	1-16 June	5.5	90	NE
2011	17-24 June	3.9
2011	1-8 July	4	14	NW
2011			38	N
2011	8-15 July	4	20	SW
2011	15-22 July	4
2011	22-29 July	2.1		SW
2011	29 July - 5 Aug	5.5		E
2011	5-12 Aug	4	10	W
2011	12-19 Aug	4.2
2011	19-26 Aug	5.2	18	E
2011		7.3	65	E
2011	26 Aug - 1 Sept	3		NE
2011				SE
2011				SW
2011	2-9 Sept	3.5
2011	9-15 Sept	4.6		NE
2011	16-23 Sept	6
2011	23-30 Sept	4.5	80	SE
2011	30 Sept - 7 Oct	3.2
2011	7-14 Oct	3.8
2011	14-21 Oct	3.3
2011	21-28 Oct	3.7
2011		1.8	15	NE
2011	28 Oct - 4 Nov	4.5	130	SE
2011	4-11 Nov	3.5
2011	11-18 Nov	3.9	172	e
2011	18-25 Nov	2.8
2011	25 Nov - 2 Dec	3.8
2011	2-9 Dec	3.6	90	E
2011		3		E
2011	9-16 Dec	4.1	40	S
2011		5.2
2011	23-30 Dec	5
2012	1-6 Jan	4.5	56	SSE
2012	6-13 Jan	4.2	40	E
2012	13-20 Jan	3.3
2012	19-27 Jan	3	70	NW
2012	27 Jan - 3 Feb	2.6	80	E
2012	3-10 Feb	4.1	10	SE
2012	10-17 Feb	4.6
2012	17-24 Feb	3.5	15	E
2012	24 Feb - 2 March	3.9
2012	2-9 March	3.4
2012	9-16 March	3.1
2012	16-23 March	3
2012	23-30 March	2.5
2012	30 March - 6 April	2.5
2012	7-13 April	2.5	15	E
2012	13-20 April
2012	20-27 April	2.5
2012	27 April - 4 May	2.3	65	SE
2012	4-11 May	2
2012	11-18 May	1.8
2012	18-25 May	2.2		NE
2012	31 May - 8 June	2.4
2012	8-15 June	3
2012	15-22 June	3.6
2012	22-29 June	3.6
2012	29 June - 10 July	3.3
2012	6-16 July	2.5
2012	13-23 July
2012	20-27 July
2012	27 July - 3 Aug
2012	3-10 Aug	3.3
2012	10-20 Aug	0
2012	25 Aug	5.8
2012	27 Aug	2.4
2012	31 Aug - 7 Sept	2.5
2012	7-14 Sept	3
2012	14-21 Sept	5.5
2012	21-28 Sept	6
2012	28 Sept - 5 Oct	4
2012	6 Oct	6.7	42	SE
2012	5-12 Oct	6.5
2012	15 Oct		64	N
2012	16 Oct	4		N
2012	19-26 October
2012	26 Oct - 2 Nov	3.5

Average Plume Height:  3.8 km a.s.l.

Average Plume Drift Distance:  74 km

Average Plume Drift Direction:  ESE